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Volunteers Sought for Group Expert Judgment Study


October 19, 2015—Researchers at the Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute (SEI) are seeking volunteers to participate in a study. The Quantifying Uncertainty for Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE) research project is conducting a public call for participation from individuals who have recent experience executing a DoD program. This study explores how to calibrate individual and group expert judgment in the context of decisions about uncertain events within Department of Defense (DoD) programs. The study also explores the impact of those uncertain events on the cost of executing a program.

The call for participation is open now through November 30, 2015. Participants will gain knowledge of measuring expert judgment and techniques to improve their own judgments and estimations. After the experiment, participants will receive their personal test results in addition to summarized group results in a format that maintains individual confidentiality.

The experiments will be conducted across two half-days the week of December 7 as follows:

Half-Day 1 will consist of a 30-minute introduction to the research, a 45-minute individual expert-judgment test, a 75-minute group expert-judgment test, a 45-minute training session, a 25-minute individual expert-judgment test, and a final 20-minute training session.

Half-Day 2 will consist of a 20-minute introduction, 25-minute individual expert-judgment test, a 40-minute training session, a 45-minute individual expert-judgment test, a 75-minute group expert-judgment test, and a final 20-minute feedback session.

Participants will log in remotely to participate in the experimental session using a conference call number and complete of series of tests using secure survey links.

For more information about the experiment and to volunteer, visit